Marc Rummy/Flowingdata illustration of base rate fallacy as it applies to breakthrough infections

Flowingdata is great. They create lots of exciting data visualizations and share other people's visualizations. 

This visualization from Flowingdata is especially significant. 

I think it illustrates base rate fallacies beautifully. Moreover, it is applied to a very crucial issue: Immunizations. The base rate fallacy has been used repeatedly to attack the efficacy of vaccines. In particular, instances when vaccinated people catch diseases for which they have been vaccinated. Frequently, such arguments fail to consider base rate data regarding how many more people are vaccinated. 

This illustration from Marc Rummy is elegant and straightforward and explains a mathy/sampling/statsy concept without any actual math. I love it. 

Also, this illustration has been updated recently with a bit more text to explain everything:

Apparently this picture I made that was part of a post 4 months ago recently went viral. Here's a new & improved version that includes the explanation in the image. Feel free to use/share it! pic.twitter.com/JoqWF8uyXS

— Marc (@MarcRummy) November 26, 2021