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Showing posts with the label data driven decisions

Does unusually heavy traffic at pizzerias near the Pentagon predict global military activity?

While most of my class time is dedicated to the specifics of performing and interpreting inferential tests, basic statistical literacy and thinking are equally important lessons. Here are some of the big-picture literacy ideas I want my students to think about in my stats classes: 1. How can we use data to understand patterns to make predictions? 2. How can we separate the signal from the noise?  3. How can data actually inform real life and current events? 4. How can we repurpose existing data in a world where data is everywhere? Here is an example I JUST found that addresses all of these ideas. The  Pentagon Pizza Report is an X account that monitors Google "Popular times" data in pizzerias near the Pentagon to predict military activity.  The X account asserts that unusually high, later-than-normal foot traffic at pizzerias near the Pentagon (x) may indicate that Pentagon military staff are working late and need to grab take-out for dinner(y).  Most recently, the...

Full Discussion Board Idea #3: Deer-related car accidents by state.

State Farm, a prominent American insurance provider, shared data that ranked American states based on the number of animal-related (mostly deer) car accident claims filed per state .  I blogged about this data previously , and I am returning to it now as part of my semi-regular Discussion Board Ideas series on this blog. I have been using this prompt in my online stats class in NW PA for about a year now. I'm going to share some of that success here. Note: PA is #4 for deer-related car accident claims, so this data resonates with my students.  I use this for the fifth of seven weeks in my online class, so the students are comfortable with the class format and one another by then. Here is the exact prompt I use: I have a weird question for you: How do you think Pennsylvania ranks when it comes to the number of car accident insurance claims involving colliding with animals? Yes, I am on my soapbox about safe night-time driving in PA. Once you have your guess, check against...

Incorporating Hamilton: An American Musical into your stats class.

While I was attending the Teaching Institute at APS, I attended Wind Goodfriend's talk about using case studies in the classroom. Which got me thinking about fun case studies for statistics. But not, like, the classic story about Guinness Brewery and the t-test . I want case studies that feature a regular person in a regular job who used their personal expertise to deduce from data to do something great. An example popped into my head while I was walking my dog and listening to the Hamilton soundtrack: Hercules Mulligan. Okieriete Onaodowan, portraying Hercules Mulligan in Hamilton He was a spy for America during the American Revolution. He was a tailor and did a lot of work for British military officers. This gave him access to data that he shared through a spy network to infer the timing of British military operations. Here is a better summary, from the CIA:  I like this example because he wasn't George Washington. And he wasn't Alexander Hamilton. He had t...

Pew Research's Quiz: How well can you tell factual from opinion statements?

Pew Research created a survey that asks participants to identify news statements as opinions or facts. They had 5000+ complete this survey AND you can complete the survey and see your results.  Description of quiz AND research methodology! An example question from the survey. This one made me think of Ron Swanson. How to use in Stats/RM: 1. A good way of introducing the truism "The plural of anecdote isn't data.". Facts and opinions aren't always the same thing, and distinguishing between the two is key to scientific thinking. Ask your student think of of objective data that could prove or disprove these statements. Get them thinking like researchers, developing hypotheses AND operationalizing those hypotheses. 2. At the end of the quiz, they describe your score in terms of percentiles. Specifically, in terms of the percentages of users who scored above and below you on the quiz items. 3. You can also access Pew's report of their survey f...

Understanding children's heart surgery outcomes

Good data should inform our decisions. Even a really stressful decision. This site demonstrates this beautifully by providing UK pediatric hospital survival rates to aid the parents of children undergoing heart surgery. The information is translated for laypeople. They present statistical ideas that you and your students have heard of but without a lot of statistical jargon. The data is also explained very clearly. For example, they  present detailed hospital survival rates , which include survival ranges: So, it contains data from a given period. It includes the actual mortality rate and a range likely to have a valid mortality rate. So, essentially, they are confidence intervals but not precisely confidence intervals. In addition to this more traditional presentation of the data, the survival ranges are explained in greater detail in a video . I think this video is helpful because it describes the distribution of the sample mean and how to use them to estimate ac...