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Showing posts with the label polling techniques

Data used by historians to defend tobacco companies

I love data-informed opinions and arguments. So, I was fascinated when NPR told me that some academics quietly take side gigs in which they use data to help tobacco companies. Specifically, tobacco companies argue that, over time, people have become more and more aware of the risks associated with smoking. As such, Big Tobacco argues that they should not be held responsible for the harm caused by smoking. From NPR: I went down the rabbit hole to find the original data and more information on Gallups position, and this is what I found: https://news.gallup.com/poll/1717/tobacco-smoking.aspx So, while American's had heard about the potential connection between cancer and smoking, not everyone believed that this was true (41%), and many people weren't sure about the link (29%). How to use in class: -Data used in court. -Data is used by historians. More here:  http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/stuff_for_blog/Ethics-of-Consulting-for-the-Tobacco-Industry.p...

Mara Liasson's "The challenges behind accurate opinion polls"

This radio story  by Mara Liasson (reporting for NPR) discusses the surprising primary loss of former Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. It was surprising because internal polling conducted by Cantor's team gave him an easy win, but he lost out to a Tea Party favorite, David Brat. The story goes on to describe why it is becoming increasingly difficult to conduct accurate voter polling via telephone and the internet. Some specific points from this story that teach students about sampling techniques: 1) Sample versus population: One limitation of polling data is the fact that many telephone call-based sampling techniques include landlines and ignore the growing population of people who only have cell phones. 2) Response rates for political polling are on a decline, making the validity of the available sample shrink. 3) Robocalls, while less expensive, have no way of validating that an actual registered voter is responding to the questions. Additionally, restrictio...

Cory Turner's "A tale of two polls"

LA Johnson for NPR Cory Turner , reporting for NPR, found that differences in survey word choice affected research participant support of the Common Core in education. The story follows two polling organizations and the exact phrasing they used when they asked participants whether or not they support the Common Core. Support for the Core varied by *20%* based upon the phrasing (highlighted below): Education Next  Question : "As you may know, in the last few years states have been deciding whether or not to use the Common Core, which are standards for reading and math that are the same across the states. In the states that have these standards, they will be used to hold public schools accountable for their performance. Do you support or oppose the use of the Common Core standards in your state?" (53% support) PDK/Gallup Question: "Do you favor or oppose having the teachers in your community use the Common Core State Standards to guide what they teach?"  (...

Public Religion Research Institute's “I Know What You Did Last Sunday” Finds Americans Significantly Inflate Religious Participation"

A study performed by The Public Religion Research Institute  used either a) a telephone survey or b) an anonymous web survey to question people about their religious beliefs and religious service habits. The researchers found that the telephone participants reported higher rates of religious behaviors and greater theistic beliefs. The figure below,  from a New York Times summary of the study , visualizes the main findings. The NYT summary also provides figures illustrating the data broken down by religious denomination. Property of the New York Times Participants also vary in their reported religious beliefs based on how they are surveyed (below, the secular are more likely to report that they don't believe in God when completing an anonymous online survey). Property of Public Religion Research Institute  This report could be used in class to discuss psychometrics, sampling, motivation to lie on surveys, social desirability, etc. Additionally, the sour...